Welcome to the Coronawatch Bulletin. This bulletin provides an update on the current Covid-19 situation in Suffolk along with updates on the work being carried out as part of Suffolk’s Local Outbreak Control Plan.
Cllr Matthew Hicks, Leader of Suffolk County Council
Chair of the Suffolk Local Outbreak Engagement Board
Nicola Beach
Chief Executive, Suffolk County Council
Stuart Keeble, Director for Public Health in Suffolk
Chair of the Suffolk Health Protection Board
Suffolk Cases
As of the 6 January there were 16,859 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Suffolk. In total there have been 2,214 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people.
District case rate as of 6 January 2021
From 2 July, the number of lab-confirmed positive cases now includes those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Pillar 2 refers to tests in commercial labs working in partnership with the NHS. Previously, only Pillar 1 confirmed cases were included (tests completed in NHS labs). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards. As the quality of this data continues to improve, these numbers may continue to fluctuate over time, but overall, case numbers and case rates in Suffolk remain low compared to the East of England and England as a whole.
Overview
A new national lockdown in England began on Wednesday 6th January for an indeterminate period. The national COVID-19 alert tiers are suspended while the national lockdown is in place.
In the week to the 6th January there were 3,849 new lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Suffolk. This number has nearly doubled compared to the previous week.
The underlying rate of new weekly cases in Suffolk has increased and is now at 448.4 cases per 100,000 people. This rate remains below the rates for the East of England region (769.8 / 100,000) and for England as a whole (579.8/ 100,000).
In total, up to the 25th December, there have been 774 deaths in Suffolk where COVID-19 was recorded on the death certificate. There have been 44 COVID-19 related deaths in the last 7 days up to 25th December.
The estimated ‘R’ value for the East of England is between 1.2 and 1.5, the range has increased in the last week, and is higher than the ‘R’ value for England (1.1– 1.4).
Weekly Cases and Rates
COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and sending them to laboratories around the UK to be tested. If the test is positive this is referred to as a lab-confirmed case.
In the week to the 6th January there were 3,849 new lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Suffolk. This number has almost doubled compared to the previous week.
It is possible to calculate a case rate by dividing the number of cases by the number of people in a given population – this makes it possible to compare cases across different areas. The most recent underlying weekly case rate in Suffolk was 448.4 cases per 100,000 people. This case rate is almost double the rate from the previous week although Suffolk’s rate remains the lowest weekly COVID-19 case rate in the East of England.
In the last week of reported data up to 6th January there have been 550 cases in Babergh, 1.083 cases in East Suffolk, 897 cases in Ipswich, 443 cases in Mid Suffolk and 836 cases in West Suffolk. All areas have had a significant increase in cases since last week.
Regional ‘R’ Number and growth rate
What is the R number? R represents the average number of onward infections that will be generated by a single infectious individual. R tells us if the epidemic is getting bigger (>1) or smaller (<1) but now how large the epidemic is overall, and therefore shouldn’t be used as the sole indicator of the threat posed by an epidemic at any single point in time. R cannot be measured directly, and there is always uncertainty about its exact value.
The current estimated regional ‘R’ numbers are below –alongside London, the East of England currently has the highest rate in England. (Source: University of Cambridge MRC Biostatics Unit).
Death Registrations to 25th December 2020
In Suffolk, there have been 774 deaths which mention COVID-19 in total. There have been 44 COVID-19 deaths in the most recent week of data. In the last week deaths due to causes other than COVID-19 have occurred at higher levels compared to the five year average for Suffolk.
Contact Tracing
The majority of contact tracing as part of test and trace in Suffolk is being done by Public Health England and the NHS Test and Trace Service, with the Suffolk Public Health team involved in some more complex cases. In the data as of 4th January, 78.7% of all Suffolk cases had completed the test and trace process in the last 7 days. 85.5% of Suffolk contacts of cases have completed the NHS test and trace process in the last 7 days.
Coronavirus cases in care homes
In line with government guidelines are reporting weekly on the number of outbreaks within Suffolk care home settings, that Suffolk County Council has been made aware of. An outbreak is classed as a care home with two or more cases. These figures are listed on area basis and will not include the details of any specific care homes. These figures include care homes, extra care housing and supported housing. As a notifiable disease, care homes are required to report any potential or confirmed cases of Coronavirus to Public Health England (PHE) in order that this can be captured as part of the national reporting processes and also for PHE to provide advice and guidance on infection control. Care providers are under no obligation to report suspected or confirmed cases to the county council.
New Vaccination Centres
The NHS have announced the next wave of locations for Primary Care Network (PCN) vaccination sites in Suffolk. A total of 13 new sites across the county will go live from Monday January 11 at locations including Stowmarket, Long Melford and Woodbridge. They will be in addition to the sites that went live in December in Bury St Edmunds, Ipswich and Woolpit.
For more details go to the new Vaccination Centres web page from today.
Fake Covid-19 Text Alert
A warning has been issued over a fake text claiming to be from the NHS being sent to people telling them they were eligible for the new vaccine.
Anyone receiving one of the texts is urged to report it to the police via Action Fraud.
UK Cases
As of 16:34 on 06 January 2021: 2,836,801 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK (either lab-reported or lateral flow device). 77,345 have died (within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test) across all settings in the UK. You can view the latest UK dashboard and cases by local authority here.
In the UK during the last 24 hours:
• There were 62,232 new cases
• There were 1,041 deaths
Numbers now include lateral flow device positive test results as well as lab-reported (Pillar 1 and Pillar 2), by specimen date. Individuals tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test.
Current UK Alert Level: 5
On 04/01/2021 update from the UK Chief Medical Officers on the UK alert level that the UK COVID-19 alert level has been raised from level 4 to level 5. The COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation, transmission is high and rising exponentially and there is a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed.
The current Government messaging is ‘Hands, Face, Space’ (previously ‘stay alert, control the virus, save lives’ and ‘stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives’)
Hands: wash your hands regularly and for 20 seconds.
Face: Wear a face covering in indoor settings where social distancing may be difficult, and where you will come into contact with people you do not normally meet.
Space: Stay 2 metres apart from people you do not live with where possible, or 1 metre with extra precautions in place (such as wearing face coverings or increasing ventilation indoors).
National News
COVID-19 related news from GOV.UK
• Education Secretary statement to Parliament on national lockdown: Gavin Williamson statement to Parliament on closure of education settings during national lockdown.
• Priority groups for coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination: advice from the JCVI, 30 December 2020: The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is authorised in those aged 16 years and over. The AstraZeneca vaccine is only authorised for use in those aged 18 years and over.
• Oral statement on new COVID-19 regulations: Oral statement to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care on the new COVID-19 regulations following the move to a national lockdown.
Other COVID-related news
BBC
• Coronavirus: Why hasn’t the UK been testing travellers on arrival?: The government is considering requiring international arrivals to the UK to provide evidence of a recent negative coronavirus test.
• Coronavirus: ‘Rapid’ rise in York hospital admissions: The number of patients being treated for coronavirus has almost doubled within days, according to a health trust chief executive.
BBC Global
• Nigeria to get Covid-19 vaccine by ‘end of the month’: Nigeria expects to get its first batch of Covid-19 vaccines by the end of this month as part of its plan to inoculate 40% of the population this year and a further 30% next year, the head of the country’s primary healthcare agency, Faisal Shuaib, has said.
• What’s happening to the EU vaccine scheme?: The EU has been criticised for the slow pace of coronavirus vaccinations across its member states.
• Coronavirus: Irish cabinet agrees raft of tighter restrictions: The Irish government has announced a raft of measures to fight the coronavirus including school closures.